Black Sea Futures · A Foresight Project & Ideas Lab
The Black Sea region has more than one possible future.
Black Sea Futures is an independent foresight project on the wider Black Sea region. It brings geopolitical and policy analysis together with strategic foresight to examine how changes across sectors interact. Drawing on expertise from different fields through exchange and collaboration, it looks beyond immediate events to explore possible futures and inform longer-term strategic choices.
The Black Sea region has entered a new period of accelerated, multidimensional change. Volatility now spans defence and security, economic development, energy, trade and connectivity, the information environment and climate pressures, with implications for democratic resilience and cross-regional partnerships. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has intensified security challenges, while renewed EU enlargement is opening new reform and investment trajectories.
These dynamics overlap across borders and policy fields, reshaping the regional system. The strategic challenge is to respond effectively to today’s crises while creating room for action before the next ones are fully visible – all while investing in people’s wellbeing and shaping thriving societies for the future.
This pace of change calls for better anticipation in front of uncertainties, longer-term thinking and longer-term governance – hence more foresight and more futures thinking, and not only to strengthen preparedness and resilience to future shocks but also to accelerate progress.
Black Sea Futures creates space to examine longer-term implications of current events, question assumptions and explore different possible futures for the region, on a subject and at a junction where foresight appears to be scarce. The project brings geopolitics and policy, foresight and Black Sea expertise together – to examine developments and strategic issues through a systems-thinking approach to inform longer-term strategy.
The initiative values consultation with various stakeholders and equally creates connections to facilitate substantive exchange, knowledge sharing, collaborative foresight and cross-sectoral peer learning.
In doing so, it also aims to ultimately contribute to building a culture of foresight and futures thinking across policy and expertise ecosystems focusing on the Black Sea region.
Explore further: why this project, why this region
How we work
Map · Convene · Explore · Share
Four complementary ways of connecting knowledge, people and futures-oriented practice across the wider Black Sea region.
Bring policy, research and foresight perspectives into sustained reflection and exchange.
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Explore
Examine current developments and longer-term possibilities through analysis and foresight methods.
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Share
Translate insights into commentary, publications, resources and proposals for wider discussion.
One project, distinct strands
A project that works in different ways
Black Sea Futures encompasses strategic analysis, foresight work and other initiatives by its founder, alongside collaborative activities. It also convenes a dedicated Foresight Community of Practice.
The project & ideas lab
Strategic analysis and foresight
Strategic analysis, horizon scanning, mapping, scenario building, publications, workshops and other exchanges can develop under Black Sea Futures in various formats, independently or as a collaborative exercise.
Convened by Black Sea Futures, the community brings together people from across the region, the rest of Europe and beyond, for substantive exchange, knowledge sharing, collaborative foresight, and peer learning focused on the Black Sea region.
The Black Sea region is also a political, security, economic and connectivity space. Developments in the South Caucasus, decisions made elsewhere in Europe and beyond, agreements reached in multilateral fora, and changes along major corridors all affect its possible futures.
Conceptual mapping is a continuing part of the project, tracing the links between places, sectors, decisions and emerging signals so that regional analysis can better inform foresight.
The project is grounded in pluralism of views as a core principle and also seeks to encapsulate diverse expertise from across sectors. There are several ways to engage: collaborate on an idea or publication, contribute to an exercise, join or co-host a workshop, engage with the Community of Practice, or explore a collaboration with your organisation.
An editorial publication by the founder, offering: a “radar” on foresight work or emerging signals relevant to the Black Sea region; a longer-term perspective on current developments in the region; a glimpse into how foresight is being used in international organisations and public administrations; and project and Community updates as relevant.
How I began exploring a space where Black Sea expertise, policy practice and strategic foresight could meet, and how the idea of Black Sea Futures was developed.
What a Brussels discussion on competitiveness, security, technology and strategic resilience suggests for the longer-term thinking about the wider Black Sea region.
